Jethro's Braindump

Brier Scores

Brier scores is a system developed by Glenn W. Brier in 1950, used to measure the distance between a forecast and what actually happened. Perfection is 0, while a 50-50 call will yield a score of 0.5.

The Brier scoring system is a proper scoring rule because it incentivizes forecasters to report their true probabilistic beliefs. The score is given by: